Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
